Weather forecast Roncesvalles coming days

[verar]

Hi!

First time pilgrim here, starting the Frances this Friday from SJPdP. I'm looking at the weather forecast and there might be a lot of thunderstorms. Does this mean the route Napoleon will likely be closed?

It's making me a little nervous. I have booked my first night at Orisson because I want to start with short days. How can I best proceed if the recommendations are to avoid the route Napoleon?

I also have the time to start on Thursday if that helps but obviously have no booked bed midway the mountains on that day, just in SJPdP.

It's getting so close! Aaah

 

[Bradypus]

The route will not be formally closed to walkers but the pilgrim office may strongly advise you not to attempt it if the weather conditions are likely to be dangerous.

 

[verar]

What is the most reliable source of weather forecasts in this area? And is the route via Valcarlos safe in thunderstorm weather?

 

[trecile]

The forecast doesn't look that bad to me. I have certainly been up there in worse weather.

Don't change your plans, just follow the guidance of the pilgrim office and the staff at Orisson.

There is very little chance (almost zero chance) that the pass will be closed.

 

[trecile]

Here's the forecast for the high point in the route

14 Day Weather Collado de Bentarte - meteoblue

The professional 14-day weather trend for Collado de Bentarte. Showing the uncertainty and reliability of the weather forecast.

www.meteoblue.com

 

[trecile]

Here are screenshots from the MeteoBlue app

Friday



Saturday

 

[verar]

Mixed messages here! I will bring a good raincoat, accept what happens and follow the advice from those who know the area well. Thanks for your input

 

[mattythedog]

Hi!

First time pilgrim here, starting the Frances this Friday from SJPdP. I'm looking at the weather forecast and there might be a lot of thunderstorms. Does this mean the route Napoleon will likely be closed?

It's making me a little nervous. I have booked my first night at Orisson because I want to start with short days. How can I best proceed if the recommendations are to avoid the route Napoleon?

I also have the time to start on Thursday if that helps but obviously have no booked bed midway the mountains on that day, just in SJPdP.

It's getting so close! Aaah

If bad weather you can go via Valcarlos.
Nice Albergue there and good restaurant across the street with pilgrim menu. I have never seen that Albergue full, but you shouldn’t have a problem getting all the way from SJPP to Roncesvalles in half a day

 

[trecile]

Maybe @Kathar1na will weigh in. She's a whizz with the weather apps and maps.

 

[Kathor1]

Thank you, @trecile . I use Meteoblue.com and Aemet.es weather forecast. I do not only look at the summary icons but also at more detailed forecast information - of which there is plenty - such as predictability status on Meteoblue and hourly forecast for temperature, wind/wind gusts and precipitation.

What I can say with confidence is that there will be no closure of the Route Napoleon and/or the Route Valcarlos because of the weather. Neither of these two crossings nor any other mountain pass in the vicinity will be closed due to severe weather for people on foot. It is up to every individual to be appropriately informed and to decide.

As is commonly known, a central part of the Route Napoleon is closed, i.e. prohibited by law, for Camino walkers from 1 November until 31 March of each year. This is decreed by the Spanish authorities. Sometimes in early April one can hear or read that the pass of the Route Napoleon is still closed. It does not mean that an official authority prohibits walking. It means that a central part of the route is not passable due to conditions on the ground such as old snow, ice, slush, mud.

Meteoblue allows to view a weather forecast for the Route Napoleon (enter Bentarte), for the Valcarlos route (enter Ibañeta) and for SJPP and Roncesvalles. Currently the predictability for Friday is only medium (2 "dots" out of 4).

For this Friday, Aemet has issued a severe weather warning due to rainfall (such warnings are only given for the next 3 days) but the areas concerned do not include the area around Roncesvalles. However, it looks like rainy days there, too.

I've been on hikes in the Alps and there it is drummed into people to fear thunderstorms and get off the mountain as quickly as possible or don't go up at all. People on the forum often advise to "ask the locals" as if they were experts in weather forecasting and were not getting their information from the same sources as everybody else ... . I did once ask a local of SJPP whether it is not dangerous to walk during a thunderstorm. He did not think so. It turned out that he is a mountain biker. And also that he just does not go mountain biking when the weather is bad. Make of this what you want ...

 

[Kathor1]

@verar, are you already in SJPP or still on your way?

We've got the odd situation at the moment where the weather in the Netherlands is better than in Spain. You will move from stable sunny late summer weather to cooler rainy and not very stable weather that is more difficult to predict. The Meteoblue forecast for tomorrow (Friday) is still only medium (2 "dots" out of 4) which means "accurate in parts but deviations are expected. Check again for latest updates." Thunderstorm icons are hovering around but there are no Aemet severe weather warnings for the area SJPP to Roncesvalles. The hourly forecast appears to indicate that thunderstorms / rain are more likely in the afternoon if at all ...

You've booked a night at Orisson. Which would mean that you could do most of your walking in the first part of the day on both Friday and Saturday. This is not any kind of advice from my side, though ... In SJPP, you could ask at the tourist office or at the pilgrim office for opinions and also at Orisson - Jean-Jacques is the name of the owner.

Buen Camino and let us know how it worked out for you!

Here is the current view from the nearest webcam:

 

[verar]

@verar, are you already in SJPP or still on your way?

We've got the odd situation at the moment where the weather in the Netherlands is better than in Spain. You will move from stable sunny late summer weather to cooler rainy and not very stable weather that is more difficult to predict. The Meteoblue forecast for tomorrow (Friday) is still only medium (2 "dots" out of 4) which means "accurate in parts but deviations are expected. Check again for latest updates." Thunderstorm icons are hovering around but there are no Aemet severe weather warnings for the area SJPP to Roncesvalles. The hourly forecast appears to indicate that thunderstorms / rain are more likely in the afternoon if at all ...

You've booked a night at Orisson. Which would mean that you could do most of your walking in the first part of the day on both Friday and Saturday. This is not any kind of advice from my side, though ... In SJPP, you could ask at the tourist office or at the pilgrim office for opinions and also at Orisson - Jean-Jacques is the name of the owner.

Buen Camino and let us know how it worked out for you!

Here is the current view from the nearest webcam:
View attachment 177807

Hi Katharina,

Thank you so much for your thoughts and kind attention. I have arrived in SJPdP and the folks at the pilgrim office indicated no dangerous difficulty heading towards Roncesvalles. I'm happy to have my night in Orisson indeed, so I can walk mostly/only in the mornings. I hope that will save me from most of the rain and thunder, if not all.

I recognize your observation that in the Alps, thunderstorms mean the advice is to "get out of there, ideally yesterday" more or less. I have been exposed to this and so I have some natural caution built in. But now I think I'll check the weather forecast tomorrow just to be sure, but most probably make it to Orisson just fine and see from there

Thanks again!
Vera

 

[trecile]

With the short walk to Orisson you can decide to leave early or later depending on the weather. If possible, I like to relax and enjoy SJPdP until until about 11 am before heading out in order to arrive up there in the early afternoon.

 

[verar]

Made it to Orisson all good and happy! The folks who left 10am or later had rain the whole way so I was happy to have been walking from 8am. A long afternoon of rest is no punishment here, between comfy accommodation for quiet time and cosy restaurant for social time.

There is a family with 4 kids also on the same trajectory - they were heading for Roncesvalles today and turned back from somewhere beyond Orisson by taxi because circumstances there were not great and the kids were cold. Hot chocolate seemed to be making them warm and happy again though

As for tomorrow; time will tell. No signs of thunder so far so I'm not so worried anymore.

 

[brault-singh]

The forecast doesn't look that bad to me. I have certainly been up there in worse weather.

Don't change your plans, just follow the guidance of the pilgrim office and the staff at Orisson.

There is very little chance (almost zero chance) that the pass will be closed.

We walked on September 15, 2015 from SJPDP to Orisson. It was windy but we stayed the night there and enjoyed ourselves meeting our new friends. The next morning, after breakfast - so around 8am, a bunch of us headed out of Orisson. Still real windy, but no one stopped us or told us to watch it. As we walked the wind got really bad. A woman was knocked down and we found out later she had broken her shoulder. We took to walking on the verge using our poles to dig in, step, and dig in again. When we made it to the little hut close to the downward slope into Orisson, there were several people huddled there. We were all hiding from the wind. We were all amazed no one had warned us about the wind forecast. We finally made it to Roncesvalles where the electricity was out. When it came back on, the news was that it was the remnants of Hurricane Henri going through as there had been peak gusts of 90 kmp. So, @verar don’t count on Orisson folks to warn you of anything.

 

[verar]

I recognize your story @brault-singh. We walked to Roncesvalles today and the wind was intense! I made it just fine (was intensely grateful for the hot chocolate from the French guy with the food truck) but some folks got really cold and others had difficulty with balance. It's a reminder to me that it's important to be well prepared and informed. And indeed there was no spontaneous guidance from the folks at Orisson. More rain coming tomorrow. Ultreia!