OBSOLETE COVID THREAD Plans later in the Year? It is "Who knows?" Time

[VNwalking]

Several days ago I posted this thread, before the official response to the Covid-19 pandemic began to intensify:

https://www.caminodesantiago.me/community/threads/a-plea-to-stay-home.67033/#post-837015

Yesterday I asked that it be closed, as official edicts seemed to make it irrelevant.

I've had requests to re-open it, but rather than do that, here is another thread altogether.

We cannot go anywhere right now, nor should we. So of course we wonder about later. May? June? September? Can I? Should I? Etc ...

There is no knowing. Later it will be clear, but for now we just need to be patient and wait. We'll know when we know. I also have a ticket in limbo and understand wanting a date. But the future is on hold, for every one of us.

Please take care of each other, and may we all be well.
♥

 

[David]

Yes ... I have noticed that in the last day or so scientists are now saying that this plague will be with us until sometime next year - I am still having problems grasping the size of all this.

 

[Stivandrer]

...best scenario is that it peters out come June/July and then has a (minor) resurge in the fall !!

 

[mmmmartin]

This link is to a very readable academic paper from Imperial College London. We're looking at 18 months. Time to stay at home and learn Spanish online.

https://t.co/ZejfSQcO0Y?amp=1

 

[malingerer]

Several days ago I posted this thread, before the official response to the Covid-19 pandemic began to intensify:

https://www.caminodesantiago.me/community/threads/a-plea-to-stay-home.67033/#post-837015

Yesterday I asked that it be closed, as official edicts seemed to make it irrelevant.

I've had requests to re-open it, but rather than do that, here is another thread altogether.

We cannot go anywhere right now, nor should we. So of course we wonder about later. May? June? September? Can I? Should I? Etc ...

There is no knowing. Later it will be clear, but for now we just need to be patient and wait. We'll know when we know. I also have a ticket in limbo and understand wanting a date. But the future is on hold, for every one of us.

Please take care of each other, and may we all be well.
♥

I have always prided myself on being a loner and self sufficient. My family and friends are widely scattered. The virus has humbled me. My son and daughter live hundreds of miles away but have been on the phone. So has my brother in Germany. I check this forum several times a day and have suddenly realised I AM part not only of my immediate family but the wider one of pilgrims. I owe you all a thank you.

Walk soft

stay safe

and

as ever

Vaya

con Dios.

The Malingerer.

 

[Turga]

The current situation is yet another reminder that though we, as humans, are very capable intellectually, technologically and scientifically, when nature ’flexes its muscles’ in some way or another, we will remain the weak party.

 

[Purky]

the future is on hold, for every one of us

Isn't it always? Living in the present and planning for the future, it's a tricky one for me. I mess up all the time. The present circumstances, however tragic, also turn out to be quite the wake-up call. 'Business as usual' does not apply anymore, in a big way.

 

[VNwalking]

The present circumstances, however tragic, also turn out to be quite the wake-up call. 'Business as usual' does not apply anymore, in a big way.

And when this round of trouble resolves, those of us who are left will likely go back to sleep. We are very good at assuming stability and reliability, but life doesn't do that so well.
In the meantime...we can all stay home, dream, plan, and try to hold it all lightly. This feeling of who knows is something I don't want to forget so easily...

 

[Anniesantiago]

I have a group trip planned for Holy Year but right now things are too up in the air and my brain is too fried to even think about it. I’m definitely in ‘wait and see’ mode.

 

[naplesdon]

I just mentioned on another thread, once pilgrims start coming back the Camino will be like Holy Year on steroids. Doesn't anyone remember the "bed race" pandemic?

 

[Jimliz83]

We were meant to be starting on the 23rd of April but at this time we have both been told to self isolate we are on day 5 of 14 days isolating, I don't think we will be doing it this year so it looks like next year if this has all cleared up, who knows as they say the camino will come to us when the time is right, everyone stay safe.

 

[David]

I don't think anyone should be planning a Camino before August or later next year - if even then.

 

[BoyRoger]

What happens after someone has had the virus, mild in most cases apparently, can they return to normal life including walking ?

 

[NorthernLight]

What happens after someone has had the virus, mild in most cases apparently, can they return to normal life including walking ?

We aren’t doctors or epidemiologists. From what I’ve been reading, it is not yet known whether we develop enough antibodies to protect against a second infection or against being a carrier. They are still figuring this out.

 

[mmmmartin]

I don't think anyone should be planning a Camino before August or later next year - if even then.

Totally agree. All the reading I've done suggests 18 months minimum before we'll even be thinking of getting back to normal. UK govt telling us not to travel to any country, anywhere in the world, for 30 days. For the Camino many businesses will have gone by then. So peregrinos will see a very current Camino when this is over. And there won't be as many pilgrims because so many millions around the world will have lost their jobs so can't afford to travel. Many more won't be able to retire as early as they had hoped - so won't have the free time to spend six weeks walking across Spain. So for businesses along the Camino they might not see the same level of demand as last year for many many years.

 

[CMD]

And when this round of trouble resolves, those of us who are left will likely go back to sleep. We are very good at assuming stability and reliability, but life doesn't do that so well.
In the meantime...we can all stay home, dream, plan, and try to hold it all lightly. This feeling of who knows is something I don't want to forget so easily...

A wake-up call indeed for all mankind. It’s about time we truly realised that WE ARE NOT IN CHARGE!

 

[JabbaPapa]

2021 is seriously gearing up to be the insanest Holy Year crowd-a-palooza ever !!!

 

[trecile]

2021 is seriously gearing up to be the insanest Holy Year crowd-a-palooza ever !!!

Maybe. It could be over a year before this virus is under control.

 

[lt56ny]

I think the answer to if and when you can walk again is no one knows. Things can change hour to hour let alone have anything remotely based on fact and science of what may be in June or September or December. Set no time frame based on your dreams and your dreams will have a much better chance of coming true.

 

[Turnstone]

I was planning to go in September / October, no idea if this will work. Currently it looks like the situation is getting worse before it gets better.

Going through cancer treatment has taught me to be patient and deal with uncertainties. Helps a lot during these times!

 

[Dani7]

Won’t be able to do it now until 2022. I’m undeterred and determined. My new mantra is: « I had to wait 20 years...I can wait a few more. ». In the meantime I’m staying focused on my health physically, mentally and spiritually. This is within my control. Whatever nature or the universe brings, I’ll do what is within my control.

 

[Albertagirl]

According to the document from Imperial College London posted above (link in post #4) as a person in my 70's I should be spending a four month period of self- isolation, in order to remain safe during the pandemic and to do my part to avoid overloading the intensive care facilities. I have managed four days, so far. I have discovered that I do not have a Carthusian (hermit) vocation. This is not easy. Soon, I shall have to try some solitary walking outdoors, when the weather has improved to the point that I shall not be risking broken bones on icy streets. In the meantime, I have found that I can still fulfill my pastoral care commitments: by telephoning a fellow parishioner that I had arranged to visit yesterday and helping a hospitalized parishioner to locate on his phone the morning prayer service posted by our church, closed due to COVID-19. And I am spending a lot more time than usual in prayer. This is not virtue on my part: more a matter of being pushed by the constant question, "What shall I do now?' For some reason, "Tidy my apartment" has not yet got to the top of my list.
My neighbour across the hall has offered to shop for me and has brought me a week's worth of fresh fruit. I have learned that I can do this- one day at a time, and still be able to give, and maybe learn to receive. Planning my next camino becomes less urgent, as I start to accept that it will probably not be this fall, but next.

 

[trecile]

That's going to happen in the US because it is taking no action

I'd say that closing bars and restaurants, limiting gatherings to no more than 10 people and encouraging people to self isolate isn't no action.

 

[Albertagirl]

This is correct but it doesn't mean you can't leave the building you live in. You can go out, but keep two metres between you and other people. The issue is keeping you from picking up the virus because for you there is an extremely high rate of fatality. So you can go out, walk the dog, etc, as long as you are alone or at least two metres from others. So going into a crowded train, a small pub, a tiny restaurant full of people, might kill you.

Remember that in Italy if you are over 65 and ill in hospital they have to leave you to die because the number of sick people is overwhelming the hospitals, and they have to focus on those they can save.

That's going to happen in the US because it is taking no action and the number of deaths is likely to exceed a million. (lowest fatality guess-stimate is 1 per cent of those infected, which is - lowest possible - going to be 20 per cent of 300m = 60 million. ....... Worst case is 70 per cent infected = 200 million, with 2 per cent death rate = 4 million dead. Vietnam war was 50,000 US deaths.)

Thanks for clarifying. I know that I can go out to walk, but it is not currently safe for me in Calgary: too much snow, with ice below, too much ice to be safe. When the sidewalks are clear, I shall enjoy some long walks along the river near my home. Regardless of when I can go, I want to keep in shape for walking caminos.

 

[nycwalking]

Saw this on FB.

 

[mmmmartin]

I'd say that closing bars and restaurants, limiting gatherings to no more than 10 people and encouraging people to self isolate isn't no action.

'Terrifying' New Research Warns 2.2 Million Could Die From Coronavirus in US Without Drastic Action

"Only now is the White House coming out of denial and heading straight into saying it could not have been foreseen."

www.commondreams.org

 

[David]

Re this plague - Ibuprofen and similar (named so in the UK) - don't use them. All anti-inflammatory painkillers lower our immune system quite significantly which makes it harder for our systems to fight virus attacks - with the Coronavirus plague upon us, unless they have been prescribed use paracetamol. Wherever you are ... also, vit D increases protection from lung infections, microbe or viral, by 17%.

 

[alexwalker]

Re this plague - Ibuprofen and similar (named so in the UK) - don't use them. All anti-inflammatory painkillers lower our immune system quite significantly which makes it harder for our systems to fight virus attacks - with the Coronavirus plague upon us, unless they have been prescribed use paracetamol. Wherever you are ... also, vit D increases protection from lung infections, microbe or viral, by 17%.

I have been notified of the same, friend.

 

[VNwalking]

It's never been exponential ; it's following a typical bell curve.

Can we please stay on topic?

 

[Bob from L.A. !]

We aren’t doctors or epidemiologists. From what I’ve been reading, it is not yet known whether we develop enough antibodies to protect against a second infection or against being a carrier. They are still figuring this out.

I was watching a Q & A on television with 2 doctors, Dr. Sanjay Gupta and Dr. Lina Nguyen. This question was asked if an individual can (re) contact the disease once they have already had it and the answer was "Yes". (Obviously, with this unknown and fast changing virus, the answer may change in time, but I thought it worth posting for now).

 

[LesR]

Yes ... I have noticed that in the last day or so scientists are now saying that this plague will be with us until sometime next year - I am still having problems grasping the size of all this.

My working position is that current lock-downs (or worse) will be with us until there is widespread herd immunity (ie. sufficient people who are immune to the virus to largely stop it spreading... current wisdom puts the number at around 60 -70% of the population).

This will only happen when the requisite proportion of the population has been infected, recovered and developed their individual immunity, or when there is a vaccine available and the requisite proportion of the community has been immunised.

The caveats around these two alternatives are that

1. the effectiveness of natural immunity is uncertain - there are reports of infected people recovering and relapsing
2. a vaccine is 12 to 18 months away, and it's effectiveness for the individual is unknown at this early stage (can be less than 100% and/or immunity can be temporary, as is the case with flu vaccines).

Add in the consideration that the camino is 'composed' of people from many parts of the world (some countries/regions will have dealt with COVID 19 better than other) and the cohort present in any one place will change daily. Consequently, any estimation of herd immunity at a specific point is probably good for less than 24 hours. Each day will be a new day (nothing new there, but consider the context) and will bring a different risk of infection. Further, despite the best efforts of hospitalleros, albergues would seem to be fairly high risk areas for infection - many people sleeping in close proximity, daily changing clientele, etc.

The statement "this plague will be with us until sometime next year" might be a tad optimistic...

As a result, my gut feeling is that another camino for me will have to wait another 2 years, or more...

 

[VNwalking]

As a result, my gut feeling is that another camino for me will have to wait another 2 years, or more...

Who knows?
The hardest thing here is to just rest with that not knowing. Instead we speculate, based on nothing. It's human nature to do that, but also an energy drain.

Bottom line is that it is here now. And likely for some time. So if you had plans for a summer or autumn camino, they may also end up being scrubbed. And it is easier to deal with changing plans in advance rather than at the last minute. Word to the wIse.

 

[ObeeOne]

I don't think anyone should be planning a Camino before August or later next year - if even then.

My planned Camino for May has been changed to October. Here's hoping....

 

[4 Eyes]

I have a September/October camino planned, with hostels prebooked. Just received notice of cancellation from one. They are closed indefinitely.

 

[Steven Dwyer]

Looking at world travel today with so many nations closing their borders it is impossible to predict what the situation will be at any given time in the future. One of the truths of this world pandemic is that it is folks like us who travel around the world in a matter of hours that fueled the virus. While this virus originated in China, if you look at the case reports from around the world now you see the phrase, “with a history of travel to __________” and places like the US, UK, Spain and many other countries listed. One of the joys of the Camino is meeting people from around the world, but in an age of pandemics, is a recipe for rapid transmission of a virus.

It is my hope that the quarantine in Spain will be lifted soon and that life there begins to return to normal. But I look at the possibility that when the quarantine is lifted, visitors from outside Spain may be faced with a quarantine upon arriving in Spain. Depending on where you live in the world, on returning home, you might be faced with a second quarantine much like what is happening in China today. Until a vaccine is widely available, I expect countries to be very cautious with international visitors.

My personal advice would be in planning any Camino, figure out the details for you dream but refrain from booking reservations at this time. If like myself you are sheltering in place, you have plenty of time to make those plans and it is a great distraction from watching the case numbers continue to climb. Making a bunch of reservations now might be super easy but from personal experience, canceling refundable reservation won’t be super easy.

Until the day comes when we can all travel freely again, stay safe and wash your hands frequently.

 

[mmmmartin]

Anyone who plans a Camino this year is ignoring the scientific advice given to the UK govt that these restrictions will need to be in place "for at least the best part of a year". That's Christmas, at least. Many airlines are not going to survive this closure for several months, so booking any air fare now for 2021 would be a big risk.
The Holy Year get-together in Santiago might not even happen by next Easter.

 

[ObeeOne]

Well, the group that put together my Camino has rescheduled for October. This pandemic will hit a peak and decline as viruses do. The question is how soon things can come back somewhat to 'normal'. But the normal we have known is gone; there will be a new normal.

 

[naplesdon]

Re this plague - Ibuprofen and similar (named so in the UK) - don't use them. All anti-inflammatory painkillers lower our immune system quite significantly which makes it harder for our systems to fight virus attacks - with the Coronavirus plague upon us, unless they have been prescribed use paracetamol. Wherever you are ... also, vit D increases protection from lung infections, microbe or viral, by 17%.

I am not asking for "medical advice" but what kind of NSAID is safe? I have terrible neuropathy and take Advil twice daily to lessen the pain because nothing else has worked for me. I just experimented with a nutritional supplement for neuropathy pain and after 3 days I developed debilitating cramps in my feet and ankles. Enough is enough. My only Mother Mary is Advil, Lyrica and electronic stimulation never came close to helping me. You can PM me if you wish, this is a serious question for me.

 

[naplesdon]

Anyone who plans a Camino this year is ignoring the scientific advice given to the UK govt that these restrictions will need to be in place "for at least the best part of a year". That's Christmas, at least. Many airlines are not going to survive this closure for several months, so booking any air fare now for 2021 would be a big risk.
The Holy Year get-together in Santiago might not even happen by next Easter.

Maybe like the Olympics the church can change the calendar for the Holy Year. I think Santiago would agree.

 

[C clearly]

what kind of NSAID is safe?

The difficult question is "How safe is safe enough?" The answer depends on many factors and, in the end, a risk-based decision.

 

[Albertagirl]

I am not asking for "medical advice" but what kind of NSAID is safe? I have terrible neuropathy and take Advil twice daily to lessen the pain because nothing else has worked for me.

@biarritzdon

A couple of days ago the CBC spoke to the current talk going around about ibuprofen, as no longer considered to be dangerous. The issue which arose originally was the use of ibuprofen for fever in people who have COVID-19. These issues get complex in a time of pandemic. Good health.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/ibuprofen-covid-19-novel-coronavirus-1.5501496

 

[JabbaPapa]

I am not asking for "medical advice" but what kind of NSAID is safe?

Aspirin, unless its anticoagulant properties are bad for you (in most cases that's from a heart condition and the related medication).
But if the maximum possible daily dosage isn't sufficient, see a doctor. Don't ask random people on the internet, not even doctors who can't see you in person.

Ibuprofen and others of its ilk are OK if only ever used punctually, over 2-3 days max.

Paracetamol is usually "safe", and it's the only one that can be used in conjunction with a different NSAID (but again, don't mix'n'match by yourself, see a doctor, don't ask random people on the internet, not even doctors who can't see you in person).

 

[Peter Fransiscus]

No voluntering first two weeks off May , now we "HOPE" to use the tickets in September to come to Santiago as a tourist.
When not, we will change the tickets again.
We have nothing else planned

Stay safe and healthy my dear friends. ❤