Weather forecast for a long period

[Pelegrin]

From time to time there are questions on this forum about the weather for two or more months to planify gear.
In last December there was a forecast for January and February telling that those months would be more rainy than usual in Spain.
The thing is that they has been the oposite, more dry and warm than usual.
I told this forecast here on the forum two or three times on different threads. I am sorry if someone changed their plans because my information.
I will never consider weather forecasts for more than a few days.

 

[t2andreo]

I always say that weather forecasters have a 50/50 chance at being right. Practically speaking, they are either right, or wrong.

There are weather statistics, gathered over many years. But, these facts only depict documented PAST trends. Future weather is highly dynamic.

Pelegrin is correct in never trusting forecasts for more than a few days. Living in South Florida, where hurricanes can occur from June to December, we are VERY attuned to the weather. In only the short time I have lived here (< 4 years) I have learned to read the local 'signs' and determine what is likely to happen over the next several hours. But, I cannot prognosticate much beyond that.

Part of the problem is that Florida, especially the east coast, is subject to ocean weather coming from the east and southeast. As a former blue water sailor, I can attest to the highly variable nature of oceanic weather patterns.

Even with satellites and advanced forecasting models, we still cannot know for certain what will happen beyond about 3 days. An accurate 5-day forecast would be a miracle. There is ALWAYS some variation in weather forecasts.

For Camino use, I have found over some seven years, that the El Tiempo.es+ app excels at providing local weather forecasts and historical trends for almost any named place in Spain or Portugal. Evidently, the Spanish national weather service AEMET, has remote, automatic reporting stations located in many small, rural places.

For example, did you know that, using this app, you can obtain the forecast for Foncebaddon (on the Camino Frances), just before Cruz de Ferro? Now THIS is a really small 'town.' Yet there is current weather for this location.

This app is available for free from the Android and Apple app stores.

Hope this helps.

 

[Pelegrin]

The December forecast for January and February was not based on any statistical model but on a big mass of warm air on the arctic that would push rain fronts towards Spain. But nothing of that has happened.

 

[Klogwog]

The December forecast for January and February was not based on any statistical model but on a big mass of warm air on the arctic that would push rain fronts towards Spain. But nothing of that has happened.

No but Australia got heap and heaps some towns will never be the same again

 

[trecile]

From time to time there are questions on this forum about the weather for two or more months to planify gear.
In last December there was a forecast for January and February telling that those months would be more rainy than usual in Spain.
The thing is that they has been the oposite, more dry and warm than usual.
I told this forecast here on the forum two or three times on different threads. I am sorry if someone changed their plans because my information.
I will never consider weather forecasts for more than a few days.

Better to be prepared for a lot of rain and not get it than to leave the rain gear at home and be surprised by a lot of rain!

 

[t2andreo]

The rain in Spain falls mainly...on Galicia!

 

[Kathor1]

From time to time there are questions on this forum about the weather for two or more months to planify gear. In last December there was a forecast for January and February telling that those months would be more rainy than usual in Spain. The thing is that they has been the opposite, more dry and warm than usual.

@Pelegrin, don't beat yourself up about it.

I do know the difference between weather and climate and don't want to start a debate about climate change (which is a better name than global warming) but the weather systems over Europe - basically the interaction between the highs from the Azores and the lows from Iceland - do at times not behave according to the familiar patterns. I understand that February 2019 has been unusually dry in Spain, and in other parts of Europe it has been unusually warm and sunny: the UK had several days in February where the all-time record for the maximum temperature was broken, and similarly in Germany where February was exceptionally sunny, unusually mild and too dry. Now, in March, things seem to back to normal again.