The Euro

[Deleted member 3000]

The Euro has plummeted against the U.S. dollar! European airlines are tied to the Euro, so when it drops, airfares drop for the U.S.

Currency fluctuations are hard to guess, but if the Euro continues to decline, it will be worth waiting to buy your airline ticket for a European carrier. On the Iberia Airlines site, you can compare airfares in U.S. dollars, but the underlying fare is in Euro. American Airlines code shares with Iberia, so you will need to be purchasing the flight on Iberia planes. The flight to London may be AA or British Airways, and the flight from Heathrow may be on a British Airways plane. To get a true Euro fare on Iberia, you may need to be one of the lucky ones who fly Iberia from Miami or Chicago!

 

[pudgypilgrim]

I feel personally responsible for this drop, since I just bought my tickets two days ago. However, you can expect the Euro to rise dramatically in September, when I start walking.

 

[joe g texas aggies]

The Euro has plummeted against the U.S. dollar! European airlines are tied to the Euro, so when it drops, airfares drop for the U.S.

Currency fluctuations are hard to guess, but if the Euro continues to decline, it will be worth waiting to buy your airline ticket for a European carrier. On the Iberia Airlines site, you can compare airfares in U.S. dollars, but the underlying fare is in Euro. American Airlines code shares with Iberia, so you will need to be purchasing the flight on Iberia planes. The flight to London may be AA or British Airways, and the flight from Heathrow may be on a British Airways plane. To get a true Euro fare on Iberia, you may need to be one of the lucky ones who fly Iberia from Miami or Chicago!

From what I have read, the Euro is headed to parity with the USD.

Likewise, airline fares should also be dropping due to lower oil prices. However, fuel prices are somewhat inelastic since the airlines most likely have purchased fuel contracts for future delivery. It will take time for lower fuel prices to work their way through the system. Moreover, I would not be surprised to see the spot price of WTI crude drop into the $30's. Oil storage all over the world is filling up. No place to store that last barrel of oil.

 

[fraluchi]

[...] However, you can expect the Euro to rise dramatically in September, when I start walking.

It's best not to speculate too much on what will happen between now and September. Today the US$-Euro exchange rate is favourable for non-Europeans, airfares are generally more economical and Spain is still needing to recover from the severe unemployment crisis.

 

[Scott Sweeney]

I have seen few good deals on airline tickets from the US to Europe, that is unless you want to go to Moscow or Istanbul fitst and have the flight duration around 30 hours. I am rather agitated because of these increased costs. I am beginning to think that its all tied to IP addresses.

 

[tyrrek]

Consider also that Spain is currently experiencing negative inflation, and in theory now is probably as good a time as ever in recent years for pilgs from outside the Euro Zone. However, I'm convinced that to some extent the Camino has an economy of its own. It would be a very generous proprietor who passed on any savings to their growing market of 'Euro-rich' pilgrims in a village bar!

 

[naplesdon]

Consider also that Spain is currently experiencing negative inflation, and in theory now is probably as good a time as ever in recent years for pilgs from outside the Euro Zone. However, I'm convinced that to some extent the Camino has an economy of its own. It would be a very generous proprietor who passed on any savings to their growing market of 'Euro-rich' pilgrims in a village bar!

A glass of wine is still going to be 3 euros and taste just as good as it did last year at the end of a long day. That USD is going to buy you 90 cents versus the 80 cents it bought last year, still in all that's a bargain.

 

[Scott Sweeney]

€3 for a glass of wine? In Pamplona oy Burgos maybe....

Maybe I'm drinking in the dives.
(That where I met Al). hahaha

 

[naplesdon]

€3 for a glass of wine? In Pamplona oy Burgos maybe....

Maybe I'm drinking in the dives.
(That where I met Al). hahaha

Okay, so maybe I was quoting Biarritz prices. Who knows? Where we are now paying 2.5o.

 

[SYates]

A glass of very quaffable vino was between 1,10 and 1,80 Euro last year on the CF in Spain. Buen Camino! SY

 

[Felipe]

And a bottle per table included in "menu del día", even if it seats only one person...Ok, it is the local "vino joven" variety, but it is good for a thirsty walker.

 

[hampshire!tim]

I am beginning to think that its all tied to IP addresses.

Use a VPN ? Many available at very low cost, and works very well to fake location.

 

[hampshire!tim]

A glass of wine is still going to be 3 euros

I was surprised that in one local bar I was only charged €0.60 for a vino tinto ... and it was not bad at all.
But more normally €1.00 - €1.50 in my experience, outside the towns.

 

[Scott Sweeney]

And a bottle per table included in "menu del día", even if it seats only one person...Ok, it is the local "vino joven"

variety, but it is good for a thirsty walker.

Use a VPN ? Many available at very low cost, and works very well to fake location.

Use a VPN ? Many available at very low cost, and works very well to fake location.

Use a VPN ? Many available at very low cost, and works very well to fake location.

I will look at them again, I know there was(at one time) 3 or 4 at one time that was considered trust worthy. And that is only an opinion, my opinion,....I remember when they were being used. Any recommendations?

(I'm a walker not a techie). . .

 

[Dutch]

All i know is, a Coke is way more expensive than a glass of wine on the camino.

 

[hampshire!tim]

Use a VPN ? Many available at very low cost, and works very well to fake location.

Any recommendations?

I personally use Witopia ( https://www.witopia.net/ ) because it is a very professional solution, and I need it as part of business. Only downside is that it is $50 p.a.. Another one I have seen recommendations for ( although not personally used ) is http://www.earthvpn.com/ which comes in @ $4 p.m. and you can cancel when you want, if you do not have need of regular usage.

Or even this just for a weekend use : https://proxy.sh/prices

Or you can look at a bunch here : http://www.vpnanalysis.com/5-best-cheap-vpn-providers/

Message me if you need help

 

[Dutch]

I have seen few good deals on airline tickets from the US to Europe, that is unless you want to go to Moscow or Istanbul fitst and have the flight duration around 30 hours. I am rather agitated because of these increased costs. I am beginning to think that its all tied to IP addresses.

Sometimes (often actually) it helps to delete all your coockies. I think that is how they track you, not so much the ip. So clear the coockies and try again.

 

[Albertagirl]

The Euro has plummeted against the U.S. dollar! European airlines are tied to the Euro, so when it drops, airfares drop for the U.S.

Currency fluctuations are hard to guess, but if the Euro continues to decline, it will be worth waiting to buy your airline ticket for a European carrier. On the Iberia Airlines site, you can compare airfares in U.S. dollars, but the underlying fare is in Euro. American Airlines code shares with Iberia, so you will need to be purchasing the flight on Iberia planes. The flight to London may be AA or British Airways, and the flight from Heathrow may be on a British Airways plane. To get a true Euro fare on Iberia, you may need to be one of the lucky ones who fly Iberia from Miami or Chicago!

I bought my return air ticket from Calgary (western Canada) a month ago and paid for it when I paid my credit card bill today. It cost me less than $1,000, which I consider pretty good, as the Canadian dollar is falling fast due to low oil prices and is currently at around $.78 US. But our dollar continues to fall, so I keep having to add dollars to my anticipated daily budget on the camino in October and November. I don't think I have any control or ability to predict, just temporary good luck or bad. Good luck to all of you planning caminos.

 

[jirit]

It is difficult the predict what the euro will do in the short run and even worse what it will do in the long run.

The secret to understanding what the euro will do lies in understanding what the US dollar will do!
It has been a wild ride for both currencies since the beginning of this century.

For example many expect the euro to reach parity with the US. (it is almost there)
But some may have forgotten back at 2000/2001, the euro fell to a low of 82 cents US!
But back in 2008 just before the financial crisis it was $1.60 US!

Likewise the US dollar has risen sharply in the recent months, and many speculate that it will rise further.
Again back in 2000/2001 it rose even further (and this explains why the euro reached 82 cents back then too)
But back in 2008 prior to the dark days of the financial crisis the US dollar had been falling significantly reaching a generational low, 30% lower than today.

These are extreme points of time and it is anybody guess what will happen next but extreme volatility with both currencies has become the norm.

As for fuel prices which can impact airline prices, these are normally hedged over a number of years so don't expect any significant changes in these in the short term

 

[jirit]

I sense a change in trends: Euro up and US dollar down, at least for the short term

 

[whariwharangi]

Si yo fuera tu ... me compraria pesetas.

 

[fraluchi]

[...]The secret to understanding what the euro will do lies in understanding what the US dollar will do![...]

If and when one has decided to walk the Camino and has purchased the air tickets for the trip in a near future, there will not be huge changes in hard currency exchange rates. Keep a budget in Euros (obviously!) and convert its total cost to your own currency at the present rate of exchange.

 

[Kathy F.]

I bought my train ticket when I saw the dollar/euro rate was very advantageous from the dollar perspective. I am glad I bought it when I did, even though the rate has fluctuated since then.
But, for me, the bottom line is to forget about trying to time my purchases to when it would be best for my purchasing power. It's just too complicated, like trying to find the best credit card deal - who charges the least per transaction, how can I get the most mileage points, etc.
I just give it up. I buy my stuff when I need to buy it and have no regrets.
Looking forward to those €1.50 vino tintos! Today I almost spent € 5.50 on a plain ol' white wine here!!! Decided on a cheap pils instead.
Ah, Camino, I miss you so.

 

[jirit]

I thought white wine in Germany was inexpensive. Maybe not so much now

Come to BC Canada and good luck trying to find cheap wine here

 

[Melensdad]

I sense a change in trends: Euro up and US dollar down, at least for the short term

Given what the nation of Greece is doing right now, I suspect that the Euro will remain weak to the US dollar, since Greece is one of the nations that is causing a severe economic drag on the EU and the Euro currency.

 

[jirit]

Given what the nation of Greece is doing right now, I suspect that the Euro will remain weak to the US dollar, since Greece is one of the nations that is causing a severe economic drag on the EU and the Euro currency.

After May 12, this will all change.

Bye bye Greece. And here we come the EU and the euro.

 

[Melensdad]

After May 12, this will all change.

Bye bye Greece. And we come the EU and the euro.

Well then the finacial community in the world, and the commodity traders and investors will concentrate on the remaining "PIIGS."

In financial circles, they are referred to as PIGS - Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain - and sometimes even PIIGS, if you include Italy as one of the European countries at risk of going bankrupt in the near future.

So remove Greece and you still have a serious drag on the Euro with nations that are in serious financial risk and massive relative debts.

 

[Melensdad]

And then there is this bit of Euro news, not adding to the stability >>> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...inland-could-tear-apart-the-euro-project.html

 

[fraluchi]

Most of Europe will still be using the Euro as a currency. Otherwise the next best option would be the US Dollar as a means of exchange. That the trading values of the currencies will change, depends upon how the Central Bank is allowed to print
For the time being we hope for a soft landing?!

 

[Anemone del Camino]

Most of Europe will still be using the Euro as a currency. Otherwise the next best option would be the US Dollar as a means of exchange. That the trading values of the currencies will change, depends upon how the Central Bank is allowed to print
For the time being we hope for a soft landing?!

I'm thinking the Yuan and not the $US. Will never forget one of my MBA classes 15 years ago. Teacher or students are refering to the Chinese currency as "not a real currency" and then a super bright student, and super quiet, from mainland China said "It's real currency to 1 Bn people in the world - seems quite real to me"! Brilliant, and ahead of his time.

 

[bystander]

....and when you get to your glass of vino tinto or cerveza after a long, tiring and dehydrating camino day it won't be the fluctuating rates of exchange that will decide how many glasses you will imbibe - it will be the strength of the wine and the conviviality of the company around you........for..... in vino veritas.....

 

[Lachance]

All i know is, a Coke is way more expensive than a glass of wine on the camino.

And the wine is much better for you! Well, up to the first (choose your own number) glasses...

 

[Kathy F.]

I thought white wine in Germany was inexpensive. Maybe not so much now

Come to BC Canada and good luck trying to find cheap wine here

Cheap white wine in a restaurant here, not so much.
In a grocery store, eh, middle.
I do have a favorite red from Macedonia that costs €1.75 per bottle in the grocery store around the corner.
OK. "Favorite" might be an exaggeration.

 

[jirit]

I sense a change in trends: Euro up and US dollar down, at least for the short term

Well that was a good call...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-carry-trades-in-rally-almost-no-one-foresaw

 

[Melensdad]

Well that was a good call...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-carry-trades-in-rally-almost-no-one-foresaw

I am looking for another weakness in the Euro, probably around June 20th and beyond.

 

[Deleted member 3000]

Second guessing currencies is tricky business:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/02/us-markets-forex-idUSKBN0OI00P20150602

 

[jirit]

I am looking for another weakness in the Euro, probably around June 20th and beyond.

I suspect we see the euro to continue to rise through this month but I would not want to pick an exact date when it might stop rising and then weaken.

But the short term trend still appears to be up.

Maybe the market is expecting a positive outcome with Greece? Or simply does not care?

 

[Deleted member 3000]

Given what the nation of Greece is doing right now, I suspect that the Euro will remain weak to the US dollar, since Greece is one of the nations that is causing a severe economic drag on the EU and the Euro currency.

I am looking for another weakness in the Euro, probably around June 20th and beyond.

It's up!

 

[Melensdad]

You will notice I wrote "June 20th and beyond" so let's give it a bit of time.

 

[Rellrog]

I think the market doesn't care...its up to 1.14 despite the news of a strengthened partnership with Russia and weaker with the Euro zone.

 

[Melensdad]

I think the market doesn't care...its up to 1.14 despite the news of a strengthened partnership with Russia and weaker with the Euro zone.

It may not care.

3 years ago Spain was facing near certain bankruptcy, it still has a 24% unemployment rate (Greece is hovering at 26%) and the Euro didn't collapse when Spain was in trouble.

So I may be wrong about the Euro going lower, but I'll be very curious to see where the Euro trades tomorrow when the exchange markets are active on Monday.

 

[Rellrog]

Looks like it dropped half of one percent...going from 1.14 to 1.13. Oh well. I hope you are right and the Euro goes below 1.10. Oh well, I know I'm being self concerned!