Surplus accomodation planned for mass return of pilgrims?

[danielle aird]

Does anyone know if there will be more accommodation planned for the horde of pilgrims that will arrive when the Camino opens? Everybody I talk to wants to go back asap including me. With this being a holy year and with all of us who have not been able to walk the Camino this last year, I wonder if there will be sufficient beds. Is anyone thinking of taking a small tent? Will there be places where we can pitch such a tent and use bathroom facilities, even if just a loo?

 

[trecile]

As there is no overall Camino authority, I'd say that the answer to your questions is "it depends."

 

[C clearly]

Besides, I'm not yet convinced there will be hordes of pilgrims. All of us camino-junkies will go as soon as we can, but it is entirely possible that the other 300,000 more casual pilgrims will find other priorities post-Covid. It may be awhile before international travel gets back to previous levels. We don't know, and neither do the albergue operators.

 

[Camino Chrissy]

It goes back to the good old crystal ball.

 

[trecile]

Also, the Holy Year has been extended through the end of 2022

 

[Tincatinker]

I think “hordes” are highly unlikely in 2021. There may well be large numbers of aspirants but international air travel is going to be the drooping tail on a very long dog. Vaccination programs in many countries have scarcely commenced. There is nothing but fluff on who might be permitted to do what, with which and to whom. Cyprus has offered to open its borders to Brits who can prove they’ve been vaccinated, but without any suggestion as to how said status can be evidenced. The Spanish Prime Minister has suggested that Spain might, note might, be open to tourists (vaccination status unspecified) in late summer subject to other, unspecified, controls and restrictions. I could bang on but I won’t.
Hordes, unlikely. Plans, also unlikely except perhaps in Galicia where the Tourismo always have one eye on the Camino. A tent? Type “camping” into the forum search facility.
Buen Camino: when we finally get there...

 

[jungleboy]

Besides, I'm not yet convinced there will be hordes of pilgrims.

I think “hordes” are highly unlikely in 2021.

I agree. I think it's pretty clear that no month in 2021 will have more pilgrims than the same month in 2019.

 

[henrythedog]

It’s a free-market economy. Supply will respond to demand, although there will be something of a ‘lag’ as there always is.

We can only speculate, but I personally doubt that there will be a massive surge in numbers walking as and when restrictions relax. 2022 may be different - all just ‘in my opinion’, of course.

I have flights booked from the UK to Madrid for early October 2021 (top end of the CdM followed by the CF to Astorga) . I think my chances of that happening are better than 50:50 and rising.

 

[Deleted member 73526]

I agree. I think it's pretty clear that no month in 2021 will have more pilgrims than the same month in 2019.

Depending on the odds you're offering, I might be willing to bet €10 that at least one month in 2021 will have more pilgrims than the corresponding month had in 2019.

For sure, we won't see the same crowds in the summer, but I think that it's not entirely out of the question that there would be as many pilgrims in November or December 2021 as there were in November or December 2019. For that to happen ... :

1. Things would have to go well in terms of pandemic management, vaccine rollout, etc.
2. Multiple inhibitors to doing the camino would need to fall away dramatically in a short time - eg. at the end of October.
3. The "collective consciousness" about what's safe and sensible would need to be aligned (perhaps due to point 2).
4. Pent up demand among the hardy winter walkers would need to be there (Actually, that condition is probably the most likely of these conditions to be fulfilled).
5. A few less hardy walkers would also need to feel an overwhelming desire to get on the camino immediately rather than waiting for the Spring of 2022
6. November and December 2019 would need to have been unexceptional (I guess I could look that up before placing my bet).

So ... Who's taking bets?

 

[Robo]

Depending on the odds you're offering, I might be willing to bet €10 that at least one month in 2021 will have more pilgrims than the corresponding month had in 2019.


So ... Who's taking bets?

I think you might lose that one

 

[Deleted member 73526]

I think you might lose that one

For sure. I think I might lose it. That's what makes it a gamble, see?

 

[Deleted member 73526]

To put this another way without the distasteful gambling references ... In which month of which year do you predict that pilgrim numbers will first exceed the corresponding month in 2019?

My guess is that this is most likely to happen during a very off-season month during the extended holy year (e.g. Nov. '21, Dec '21, Jan '22, Feb '22, Nov '22, Dec '22).

 

[jungleboy]

To put this another way without the distasteful gambling references ... In which month of which year do you predict that pilgrim numbers will first exceed the corresponding month in 2019?

I was thinking more about summer and autumn. Sure, it might happen in one of those off-season months but that won’t impact the OP’s concerns about accommodation. Interesting prediction game though!

 

[Kathor1]

Don’t forget in all these deliberations that, in previous Jacobean Holy Years, the increase in the number of Compostelas was driven mainly by walker pilgrims from Spain and mainly in those parts of the caminos that are closest to Santiago. 2021 may be similar.

As to Holy Year visitors in general, not just pilgrims on foot, I remember having read that the Xunta of Galicia‘s plans for PR campaigns and for Xacobeo 2021/2022 events have changed to the extent that they will now concentrate their advertising on the domestic audience in Spain for 2021 and extend it to the international markets mainly in 2022, where their major targets will be Europe, Japan, Korea, USA, and Brasil.

Originally, they had expected around 500,000 foot pilgrims cum Compostela for 2021, based on the number of 350,000 in 2019. I haven’t seen a recent estimate. They are counting on this summer for things to catch up: June to September.

I wouldn’t worry about the number of beds available in general, not more than in any other year and depending on the annual ups and downs of the pilgrimage season. The main concern in the region is filling the beds that are available, not increasing the current offer. Tents have become a more popular idea, at least in theory, and there are several recent threads already for this topic.

 

[Roland49]

There are so many uncertain circumstances involved that even the best informed would advice to the crystal ball. Me thinks, that there will be a chance, if travel is possible early this year (vaccination, falling numbers) that there will be less pilgrims on the Caminos than pre-Covid. But there will be less accomodation, too.

I postponed my easter-CP to the fall and will postpone it again, if the circumstances will not be as good as I need. My purchased ticket-voucher is good for 2 more years. I'm limited to three time-slots per year to travel (easter-, summer-, fall-break, working in education).

 

[jungleboy]

Don’t forget in all these deliberations that, in previous Jacobean Holy Years, the increase in the number of Compostelas was driven mainly by walker pilgrims from Spain and mainly in those parts of the caminos that are closest to Santiago. 2021 may be similar.

Confirming this with some statistics I researched for this article a few months ago:
How Will The Coronavirus Pandemic Affect Santiago Holy Year 2021?

During the last Holy Year in 2010, there was an 87 per cent increase in the number of pilgrims who received a compostela in Santiago (272,135) compared with the year before (145,877), including a 138 per cent increase in Spanish pilgrims.

 

[MinaKamina]

a word of caution about what we are seeing here, in the Netherlands. it may be different for Spain and Portugal of course. but still. what we are seeing here is that many people are not keen at all to work in jobs that put them in contact with lots of passers-by. the hospitality sector comes to mind, many restaurants and bars expect having trouble filling vacancies, despite the labour market. the level of sick leave in transportation and logistics is high, especially among those who deliver parcels at home. it generally takes 2 months before a person infected with COVID is able to return to work.

it will take a lot of effort to make the system work again for everyone involved.

 

[lt56ny]

I think “hordes” are highly unlikely in 2021. There may well be large numbers of aspirants but international air travel is going to be the drooping tail on a very long dog. Vaccination programs in many countries have scarcely commenced. There is nothing but fluff on who might be permitted to do what, with which and to whom. Cyprus has offered to open its borders to Brits who can prove they’ve been vaccinated, but without any suggestion as to how said status can be evidenced. The Spanish Prime Minister has suggested that Spain might, note might, be open to tourists (vaccination status unspecified) in late summer subject to other, unspecified, controls and restrictions. I could bang on but I won’t.
Hordes, unlikely. Plans, also unlikely except perhaps in Galicia where the Tourismo always have one eye on the Camino. A tent? Type “camping” into the forum search facility.
Buen Camino: when we finally get there...

Keeping my fingers crossed for October. A tent, I don't think so. On my first camino I stopped in Grannon. A pilgrim and Brierley both mentioned the wonderful donative there so I was excited to stay there and share the experience. Especially one of the biggest treats to me on any pilgrimage. The communal meal. I was met by just a wonderful woman who welcomed me with open arms. We talked and finally walked up to the sleeping area where I saw the dreaded mats. (Dreaded for me at least). I told her with a little sadness that there is no way I could sleep on one of those mats and than not need a sherpa to carry me tomorrow. She laughed and said she understood. It really kind of sucked because I am sure that place is every bit as special as everyone says. So if I am not staying there I am for sure not sleeping in a tent!!!!! Buen Camino to all you tough Pilgrims out there!

 

[lt56ny]

As there is no overall Camino authority, I'd say that the answer to your questions is "it depends

Or as John Lennon once said so succinctly; "You know, you know, you never know, you know.

 

[lt56ny]

a word of caution about what we are seeing here, in the Netherlands. it may be different for Spain and Portugal of course. but still. what we are seeing here is that many people are not keen at all to work in jobs that put them in contact with lots of passers-by. the hospitality sector comes to mind, many restaurants and bars expect having trouble filling vacancies, despite the labour market. the level of sick leave in transportation and logistics is high, especially among those who deliver parcels at home. it generally takes 2 months before a person infected with COVID is able to return to work.

it will take a lot of effort to make the system work again for everyone involved.

I think you have given some excellent comments here. I was wondering where you got the information that it is usually about 2 months before a person can return to work.
I was just reading this from the United States Center for Disease Control regarding this matter.
I am always interested in reading other sources to see what other medical opinions or studies have shown.
Here are the guidelines from the CDC and they are "general" also depending of course how serious your COVID virus was.

COVID-19 and Your Health

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Shalaw]

It’s impossible to answer this question. No one knows for sure, nor can anyone predict when Spain will welcome international pilgrims back into their beautiful country. I’m planning another Camino, but not until 2022, earliest, but even then, it won’t be my priority. I’ve had to postpone travel with my kids, for the second year, so that will be my number one trip to plan once we can travel again.

 

[MinaKamina]

I think you have given some excellent comments here. I was wondering where you got the information that it is usually about 2 months before a person can return to work.
I was just reading this from the United States Center for Disease Control regarding this matter.
I am always interested in reading other sources to see what other medical opinions or studies have shown.
Here are the guidelines from the CDC and they are "general" also depending of course how serious your COVID virus was.

COVID-19 and Your Health

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.

www.cdc.gov

This was said on radio by a spokesman from the logistics industry who spoke about a spike in the duration of sick leave in his sector. Not an official statistic, or maybe not yet. It was worrying information, since a big part of the economy depends on parcels being sent and delivered. We are used to having to wait longer, because there are so many parcels. Now the next bottleneck remains invisible to most: the lack of people to do the work.

The info from the health authorities here is mainly about number of tests, number of persons infected, persons admitted to IC and deaths from COVID.
Little attention is being paid to those who fall ill and stay at home. Among those, some suffer little or no symptoms, but others become seriously ill and remain ill and tired for a long time. Their illness is called 'mild', not because it is necessarily mild, but because they do not quite meet the threshold for hospitalization.

Re your link I see that your government is studying long time illness and long term effects too
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html

An ongoing flood of pilgrims will be every health authority's nightmare with for instance albergues as hotspots for infection.

 

[PilgrimPillar]

Spain officially gears up for opening up ASAP.

BUT

Two factor’s of importance;

- Use of EU mandatory vaccination pass on flights and entry?

- Uncertain level of control on
aggressive mutations??

Personally and within my network we want to use any «window of opportunity” this spring/autumn.

A “new normal” can take years and we can certainly get unexpected developments along the way.

My biggest fear is to bee forced to await new vaccines , who effectively fights new variants , in a successive and repetitive manner.

Cause this is no ordinary winter flu....this is worse....much worse....

 

[trecile]

My biggest fear is to bee forced to await new vaccines , who effectively fights new variants , in a successive and repetitive manner.

I get a flu shot every year, I won't mind getting a Covid booster every year if necessary.

 

[Tincatinker]

I’ll roll my sleeve up for anything that might help me to another Camino; or get to taste the November planted Broad Beans sometime this April

 

[lt56ny]

This was said on radio by a spokesman from the logistics industry who spoke about a spike in the duration of sick leave in his sector. Not an official statistic, or maybe not yet. It was worrying information, since a big part of the economy depends on parcels being sent and delivered. We are used to having to wait longer, because there are so many parcels. Now the next bottleneck remains invisible to most: the lack of people to do the work.

The info from the health authorities here is mainly about number of tests, number of persons infected, persons admitted to IC and deaths from COVID.
Little attention is being paid to those who fall ill and stay at home. Among those, some suffer little or no symptoms, but others become seriously ill and remain ill and tired for a long time. Their illness is called 'mild', not because it is necessarily mild, but because they do not quite meet the threshold for hospitalization.

Re your link I see that your government is studying long time illness and long term effects too
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html

An ongoing flood of pilgrims will be every health authority's nightmare with for instance albergues as hotspots for infection.

Thanks so much for this information and clarification. My number one reason that I didn’t state earlier is I am worried because I have both of my daughters working part time on restaurants to supplement their incomes. It worries me to no end. Appreciate greatly your detailed answer

 

[Kanga]

Buying a plane ticket to Spain at the moment is rather similar to buying a lottery ticket. With better odds. If it were me I would be paying the money for the pleasure of anticipation, but knowing deep down it was unlikely to come off.

 

[Silencio Por Favor]

I believe that I am correct in thinking that a strong percentage on this Camino forum will have walked by the end of 2022. But, are we a minority in terms of the actual numbers who do walk, in other words a reasonable number of people will not be as eager, some will have been hit hard economically due to Covid, others who were planning to walk may not feel carefree even after vaccinations? The horde may not want to go abroad like they used to?

 

[Robi Diaz De Vivar]

Does anyone know if there will be more accommodation planned for the horde of pilgrims that will arrive when the Camino opens? Everybody I talk to wants to go back asap including me. With this being a holy year and with all of us who have not been able to walk the Camino this last year, I wonder if there will be sufficient beds. Is anyone thinking of taking a small tent? Will there be places where we can pitch such a tent and use bathroom facilities, even if just a loo?

2020 will have cut a swathe through the accommodation provided along the Camino. On this site we have seen many reports of Albergues, public, private and Church run, all being forced to close. It is completely unrealistic to expect that they will all spring back up and re-open. Accordingly I believe that the answer to your question is a resounding NO. Historically Spain is not as relaxed as France about people just erecting tents on their land.

 

[jpflavin1]

Does anyone know if there will be more accommodation planned for the horde of pilgrims that will arrive when the Camino opens? Everybody I talk to wants to go back asap including me. With this being a holy year and with all of us who have not been able to walk the Camino this last year, I wonder if there will be sufficient beds. Is anyone thinking of taking a small tent? Will there be places where we can pitch such a tent and use bathroom facilities, even if just a loo?

I do not know if there is anyone who can actually answer your questions.

That said, there are several approaches you can take.

1. Just come when travel allows and put your faith in "The Camino will provide".

2. Bring and carry a tent for the 'Just in case" approach.

3. Walk less traveled routes.

I do not believe that every country is going to open up this year so that could reduce some of the perceived pressure.

Otherwise, choose an option above or another and just go when you can. I suggest worrying will not do anything but add to someones anxiety over an unknown.

Ultreya,
Joe

 

[jpflavin1]

Keeping my fingers crossed for October. A tent, I don't think so. On my first camino I stopped in Grannon. A pilgrim and Brierley both mentioned the wonderful donative there so I was excited to stay there and share the experience. Especially one of the biggest treats to me on any pilgrimage. The communal meal. I was met by just a wonderful woman who welcomed me with open arms. We talked and finally walked up to the sleeping area where I saw the dreaded mats. (Dreaded for me at least). I told her with a little sadness that there is no way I could sleep on one of those mats and than not need a sherpa to carry me tomorrow. She laughed and said she understood. It really kind of sucked because I am sure that place is every bit as special as everyone says. So if I am not staying there I am for sure not sleeping in a tent!!!!! Buen Camino to all you tough Pilgrims out there!

One of my two favorite sleeping places. The attic of church in Granon on mats. The old Albergue in Roncesvalles 125 bunk beds in an open dorm room with every two bunks pushed together. One of the more entertaining nights I have had. ;-)

 

[dagomez]

Does anyone know if there will be more accommodation planned for the horde of pilgrims that will arrive when the Camino opens? Everybody I talk to wants to go back asap including me. With this being a holy year and with all of us who have not been able to walk the Camino this last year, I wonder if there will be sufficient beds. Is anyone thinking of taking a small tent? Will there be places where we can pitch such a tent and use bathroom facilities, even if just a loo?

I suspect at best there will be the same number or less beds if additional space distancing will be required between beds in communal facilities…