Rain, rain, rain in the forecast! Should I brave it?

[CatPhillips]

What to do? I'm leaving tomorrow for Madrid (from Ohio), planning to go on to Porto, spend a few days and then walk on to Santiago. I've been keeping tabs on the weather and rain is forecast for the next 10 days. Ugh. I'm prepared to walk in rain but this is ridiculous! Should I stick with my plan or abandon it all and go south?! Somewhere warm and sunny? I'm flying home from Madrid November 26th. Here's the weather forecast:

 

[henrythedog]

I’m about to board a flight to Madrid and embark on the Camino de Madrid. Decent weather forecast for the next five days!

If you wait for a dry week in November in western and northern Iberia, you’ll be waiting a long time.

go for it!

 

[Jean Ti]

I am heading in the Lisbon direction next sunday. I know that it will rain a lot but I prefer rain to snow in Canada!!!!!

If you find to much rain you can always take a bus or train in a sunny direction like starting on Via de la Plata in Sevilla or any other sunny caminos.

Enjoy and GO !!!

 

[Kitsambler]

"Showers" only means some parts will get some rain during the day. It does not mean that everywhere will get a day-long downpour. The forecast looks like one major system, and two minor systems, each followed by several days of unsettled weather. (I'm from Seattle - we learn how to read the rain forecasts hereabouts.)

If you are well-prepared equipment-wise (rain jacket and pants rather than poncho, pack liner to supplement pack cover, extra dry clothes) you'll be fine. As the Germans say, "There is no such thing as bad weather; only poor choices of clothing."

 

[NorthernLight]

Uh oh. @Kitsambler is re-opening the great poncho vs jacket debate.

If you have your heart set on the Portugese route, then walk.
If you have your heart set on sunny weather, try August.

 

[Camino Chrissy]

If you are opposed to the predictions of rain in Portugal, how about heading to Seville and walking a stretch on the Vdlp. There will be options to return to Madrid from various cities along the way.

 

[Jean Ti]

This is a picture of the current radar in Portugal Spain

Meteociel.fr - Radar de précipitations pluie et neige - Espagne/Portugal

La météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME, ARPEGE, JMA)

www.meteociel.fr

Please use this link for live info!

 

[VNwalking]

That sounds like fun. How many people would love to be in @CatPhillips 's shoes?
(More seriously, that forecast might give me pause, and get me thinking of other caminos, depending on why I want to go out there in the first place. But if you are prepared for the wet, it would be both a bonding experience with other peregrino/as and seriously character-building.)

 

[trecile]

Remember that the XX% means that there is XX% that it will rain that day. Not that it's forecast to rain for XX% of the day. So, when there's a 40% chance of rain there is a 60% chance of no rain.

 

[Annet2020]

November will definitively give you high chances of rain, but those 10-14 day forecasts are pretty useless. They might be able to predict the next 24 hours reasonably well, but the longer ones usually keep changing.

 

[surya8]

Walked there in late Oct and mid Jan. Here is my post about the winter Camino there: https://www.caminodesantiago.me/com...r-those-who-consider-walking-in-winter.65099/ Most probable it will be a mix of some drizzle and an occasional rain, and also a lot of sunshine as well. It never rained there all day long like here on the coast of the Baltic sea where if rain comes then it stays for days at a time, sometimes weeks. That's one of the reasons I love Portugal - the weather is mostly nice there, no matter what the weather forecast says before you are leaving on the Camino Anyway if you have some rain gear and some warm clothes for the albergues you should be fine. People still walk there at this time as it's one of the busiest Caminos, so you could share your emotions about the rain or it's absence with them, they shouldn't mind Bom Caminho!

 

[Vacajoe]

It’s winter on the northern ocean coast...of course it’s raining!!!! But it’s likely not going to be for every hour of every day in every city you are walking. If you want to walk the Camino Portuguese, then the answer is simple. So, too, if your desire is simply to have a sunny hike in Portugal.

 

[SabsP]

Worst day on that prediction is 70 percent chance of rain. That means 30 percent chance of staying dry...
Yeah, I know that there is probably a weak link in my train of thought ( I was always awful with statistics when studying ).
Just go and enjoy.
It is much simpler imho to dress for the rain than being dehydrated and drowsy from the extreme heat.

And imagine coming into that particular albergue where they will put your clothes in the dryer and put up the central heating to keep you warm. This wonderful gesture was given to us after a torrential day on the Camino Vasco Interior.
That is pure magic!

Buen Camino!

 

[trecile]

Here's an article about how meteorologists calculate the Possibility of Precipitation - PoP

Do You (Or Your Meteorologist) Understand What 40% Chance of Rain Means?

It is one of the biggest challenges we face in weather communication. On a recent tubing trip, I heard a woman lamenting about rain. She said there was only a 20% chance of rain so "why was it raining, those meteorologists always get it wrong." I thought to myself, "it [...]

www.forbes.com

 

[TMcA]

My experience is with the coastal route from Porto which my wife and I walked late last April. We also faced multiple days with forecasts of rain and showers.

If that is the route you are planning to take, it is extremely easy to access public transport for most of the route. Had enough rain for a day? Just jump on a bus or a train to your next stop. Not a strategy for purists, that I admit. Nor if earning another compostalla is important for you.

One caution - lots of hard surfaces underfoot. Didn't keep track of exactly now many kilometers of concrete, asphalt, or mosaic tiles we encountered, but it was too many and was hard on our knees and very fatiguing.

 

[RJM]

I really dislike walking in rainy weather. It just plain sucks to me. No fun. Probably because of my time in the army and having to live in the field on miserable, rainy days. Wet and muddy, 24/7. Yuck.
If I was about to walk the Portugues and I saw that forecast I would probably arrive in Madrid and take the bus to Pamplona and start there or Saint Jean. That is assuming of course drier weather is predicted on that route, lol.

 

[CatPhillips]

Thanks for all the replies!

Kitsambler, very helpful explanation of weather prediction. I'm feeling encouraged. Combined with Jean Ti's radar map, and Surya8's and Vacajoe's comments, it's not looking as bad as a thought. I am prepared for rain: pack cover, pack liner, rain coat and rain pants, and dry clothes to change into. But am I prepared mentally? I'm getting there.

And yeah, NorthernLight, I guess I do have my heart set on Portugal. I've not been there yet.

VNWalking, you got me thinking about character building! I think mine is built, thank you very much! But you're right, it is a bonding experience. Went over the Hospitales on the Primitivo this spring, during windy, rainy, foggy, impossible weather. It was something to share and remember!

SabineP, wonderful image of warming up after a cold rainy day. Nice memory. I remember arriving at an albergue outside of Sarria, on a cold rainy day. The hosts had a fire in the fireplace, wine, hot soup, comfortable couches, music playing. It was heaven.

RJM, I have considered switching to the Frances. I could start around Sahagun and finish in plenty of time. But, like I said, I kinda want to see Portugal and walk that route. But you never know. If it's awful and I just can't take it, I might end of somewhere else.

And yes, VNWalking, I'm very fortunate to have these choices! Thanks for indulging me and for helping me think about it! Who else can I ask, right? My family doesn't really share my addiction!

Flying out of Ohio tomorrow! So excited!

Cat

 

[Phil W]

Buen Camino!!!

 

[domigee]

I don’t know, I hate walking in rain when I am ‘training’...
When I actually walk for real on a Camino, it is different!
ignore the forecasts, go for it!

 

[Camino Chrissy]

I don’t know, I hate walking in rain when I am ‘training’...
When I actually walk for real on a Camino, it is different!
ignore the forecasts, go for it!

I know exactly what you mean! I feel the same way!... However I can count on one hand the totally pelting rain I've walked in on five caminos...maybe I'd feel differently if it was day after day.

 

[trecile]

I don’t know, I hate walking in rain when I am ‘training’...
When I actually walk for real on a Camino, it is different!
ignore the forecasts, go for it!

I'm the same. When I'm at home I'm a very fair weather walker. On the Camino I have actually had fun walking in the rain! However, it was summer, so it was just rainy, not cold and rainy,

 

[VNwalking]

lying out of Ohio tomorrow! So excited!

Safe travel and buen camino, Cat, wet or dry - and wherever you go!

 

[TaraWalks]

What to do? I'm leaving tomorrow for Madrid (from Ohio), planning to go on to Porto, spend a few days and then walk on to Santiago. I've been keeping tabs on the weather and rain is forecast for the next 10 days. Ugh. I'm prepared to walk in rain but this is ridiculous! Should I stick with my plan or abandon it all and go south?! Somewhere warm and sunny? I'm flying home from Madrid November 26th. Here's the weather forecast: View attachment 66481

My last Camino was 29 days of rain out of 32 walking days. I got used to it eventually

 

[Jean Ti]

My last Camino was 29 days of rain out of 32 walking days. I got used to it eventually

Best way to keep a poncho clean... 29 days of rain!!!

 

[Bash On!]

Most days are just showers. I'd go for it.

 

[drvnsmiln]

In Redondela now. Rain since Porto. Nothing dries out but we have found a self service laundromat in OPorrino. Could be sitting at home WISHING I was on the Camino—- I d rather be here!!!

 

[jdickson]

Go for it. You'll dry. You never know what will happen. Enjoy!

 

[MarkyD]

What to do? I'm leaving tomorrow for Madrid (from Ohio), planning to go on to Porto, spend a few days and then walk on to Santiago. I've been keeping tabs on the weather and rain is forecast for the next 10 days. Ugh. I'm prepared to walk in rain but this is ridiculous! Should I stick with my plan or abandon it all and go south?! Somewhere warm and sunny? I'm flying home from Madrid November 26th. Here's the weather forecast: View attachment 66481

It won't be raining all day, there will be passing showers mostly- some will get you and some won't. It's November, so Autumn weather is what it is. You'll still have a great time, rain gear is obviously going to be put to good use. You can let us know what worked and what didn't ;-)

 

[Zordmot]

I called it quits yesterday in Santander. I've never seen this amount of rain for this extended period of time



QUOTE="CatPhillips, post: 798786, member: 50264"]
What to do? I'm leaving tomorrow for Madrid (from Ohio), planning to go on to Porto, spend a few days and then walk on to Santiago. I've been keeping tabs on the weather and rain is forecast for the next 10 days. Ugh. I'm prepared to walk in rain but this is ridiculous! Should I stick with my plan or abandon it all and go south?! Somewhere warm and sunny? I'm flying home from Madrid November 26th. Here's the weather forecast: View attachment 66481
[/QUOTE]

 

[CatPhillips]

I called it quits yesterday in Santander. I've never seen this amount of rain for this extended period of time



QUOTE="CatPhillips, post: 798786, member: 50264"]
What to do? I'm leaving tomorrow for Madrid (from Ohio), planning to go on to Porto, spend a few days and then walk on to Santiago. I've been keeping tabs on the weather and rain is forecast for the next 10 days. Ugh. I'm prepared to walk in rain but this is ridiculous! Should I stick with my plan or abandon it all and go south?! Somewhere warm and sunny? I'm flying home from Madrid November 26th. Here's the weather forecast: View attachment 66481

[/QUOTE]


Wow! So that must mean it's gotta be over soon, right? Hope you find something fun to do, somewhere sunny!

 

[Former member 69452]

Go for it! When I viewed the forecast for my own Camino last September, the second week's forecast was all rain. However, nothing but sunshine! Buen Camino!!

 

[Priscilla NC]

Buen Camino, Cat, whatever choices you make. I'll be thinking of you.

Blessings, Priscilla

 

[domigee]

I know exactly what you mean! I feel the same way!... However I can count on one hand the totally pelting rain I've walked in on five caminos...maybe I'd feel differently if it was day after day.

I’ve had day after day of rain on one (long) pilgrimage.... My walking mate - from Scotland- said he’d never known such bad rain , ever We even laughed about it, it was sooooo bad Like you had to empty your shoes after one km.

My point was, when you’re on a Camino, it’s different. At least, it is for me. I put up And I go on.
At home, I ‘d just say ‘I’m not walking today!’.

 

[CatPhillips]

Hi Priscilla! Wish you were coming with me!

 

[Delphinoula]

Walked in April 2018 three weeks straight in rain along the Atlantic coast. Try to keep you feet dry. Other then that it’s just great. The landscapes are so quiet and refreshing. Buen Camino

 

[Priscilla NC]

Hi Priscilla! Wish you were coming with me!

Me too! (just seeing this now). You are there now, by my calculations, I hope the weather gods are smiling on you and the CP. I'll be thinking of you as you go along. May it be as memorable as your other Caminos!

 

[Charte57]

What to do? I'm leaving tomorrow for Madrid (from Ohio), planning to go on to Porto, spend a few days and then walk on to Santiago. I've been keeping tabs on the weather and rain is forecast for the next 10 days. Ugh. I'm prepared to walk in rain but this is ridiculous! Should I stick with my plan or abandon it all and go south?! Somewhere warm and sunny? I'm flying home from Madrid November 26th. Here's the weather forecast: View attachment 66481

I just finished the Portuguese on Thursday, it rained every day except for the first two. It was intermittent, sometimes light, sometimes hard. It was ok, but I got tired of being soaked everyday. Even with rain gear, I felt very soggy.

 

[Thierry Oppenheimer]

What to do? I'm leaving tomorrow for Madrid (from Ohio), planning to go on to Porto, spend a few days and then walk on to Santiago. I've been keeping tabs on the weather and rain is forecast for the next 10 days. Ugh. I'm prepared to walk in rain but this is ridiculous! Should I stick with my plan or abandon it all and go south?! Somewhere warm and sunny? I'm flying home from Madrid November 26th. Here's the weather forecast: View attachment 66481

Prepare for rain. Enjoy it. It's much needed in the region and the natives don't mind the welcomed rain

 

[martyndeh]

I walked the last 100 miles of the portugese in rain with a good poncho and leggins. It rained every day but I was not on my own because there were always fellow walkers to keep you going. Buen Camino

 

[Walkalong]

Can you please provide a link to the weather forecast that includes the percentage POP (probability of precipitation)?

 

[Kitsambler]

the weather forecast that includes the percentage POP (probability of precipitation)?

I use the Dark Sky app on iphone

 

[henrythedog]

I use the Dark Sky app on iphone

So do I. Where it has access to live weather radar it can be good. Otherwise I’d say it’s not always right, but it is always confident.

 

[VNwalking]

It doesn't have POP, but I love Windy.
It has various forecast models that you can run to track rain accumulation, new snow, wind, etc etc.

 

[Camino Chrissy]

So do I. Where it has access to live weather radar it can be good. Otherwise I’d say it’s not always right, but it is always confident.

My local weatherman on tv predicts the weather wrong 50% of the time even with live radar. He is very confident, but I wonder why he needed a university degree...any other profession would fire him with those odds.

 

[Walkalong]

Thanks to all. Dodging moose and walking in Newfoundland last week reminded me that in wet, damp conditions a little wind makes a big difference to comfort. Given additional weight of an extra or thicker layer can be hard on arthritic knees, will wait till March or April. Thanks again!

 

[islandwalker]

It doesn't have POP, but I love Windy.
It has various forecast models that you can run to track rain accumulation, new snow, wind, etc etc.

Wow - Windy is great! Thanks for posting this. We are in Astorga wanting to keep a close eye on the snow that is coming tomorrow night. This is a big help in terms of seeing snow accumulation. Just what we needed. Windy is now installed on both our phones.

 

[VNwalking]

You're most welcome. It's a super app, especially if you know some meteorology - but even if you don't.

 

[Walkalong]

Strongly agree. Understanding the POP is a good start but an hourly prediction of the precip and wind for the day ahead is very helpful, and appreciated.

 

[islandwalker]

After a few more minutes of playing around with Windy, I’m even more impressed. By putting on the “new snow” tab and clicking “next three days” in the bar across the bottom of the map, I can see that the Camino between Astorga and Ponferrada is forecast to get 20-30 cm of new snow during that time period AND at the same time I can see nearby areas that are not forecast to get new snow that we might like to explore while we wait for some better weather to the west of Astorga. Very useful!

 

[henrythedog]

My local weatherman on tv predicts the weather wrong 50% of the time even with live radar. He is very confident, but I wonder why he needed a university degree...any other profession would fire him with those odds.

I don’t know much about weather, I’m an economist.

There are only two kinds of economic forecast: lucky and wrong.