Hi Hugh. It looks fine. Don't panic. The planning is fun, not actually obligatory. No one gets it completely right, even the old handers - I'm always making adjustments as I go along. The weather makes fools of us all - but we all cope, and, wonderfully, learn flexibility. You'll be OK.
If you want to lose a kilo, these are some of the things you might want to leave at home/an albergue for others to enjoy/send on from a post office along the way.
1. The vapour bottles. You really don't need a specific water container for walking in the evenings.
2. Pole bag. You can't just put the poles inside your bag?
3. Can opener. Never found the need for one. Most kitchens have them. If not, someone else will!
4. Sharpie. You have a pen. Who needs both?
5. You seem to have two money belts. Presume this is an error.
6. Keys. Can you find someone to leave them with?
7. Cards. You've got a book. Many albergues have packs.
8. The Sun Also Rises. You have an iPhone. Consider putting the Kindle App on it and downloading the ebook instead. Plus a few others. Including "The Road to Santiago - the Complete Cultural Handbook" by Gitlitz and Davidson. Invaluable! It will tell you exactly what you are passing each day.
9. Instead of toilet paper use the pocket packs of tissues. They fit in your pocket so are more accessible, are less obvious, are replaceable and available in every little store along the way. Dual purpose stuff is great.
10. Hair gel. I'm not even going to comment!
11. Shouldn't be necessary to have two different types of soap. One bar for hair, body, clothes.
12. "Nice shirt" plus 3 quick dry shirts, plus a jacket, plus a fleece? I'd lose something. Probably the nice shirt.
13. Don't think you need a bandana plus a buff. That's me.
14. Baby powder.
15. Plastic bags. A couple of zip locks yes. Hate plastic bags, they rattle and disturb others early in the morning.
Questions - do you have a poncho or a pack cover or an umbrella? Or am I missing something? I am trying to read your list on an iPhone.
Finally, even if you stepped off the train at SJPDP with nothing, you'd be fine. Pamplona has everything. Including a post office to send the excess to Ivar.
Buen Camino!