Endless hand-wringing about the crowds may be premature

[JustJack]

There seems to be a sense that the number of pilgrims walking in Spain will continue to increase every year, putting more and more pressure on the infrastructure and impacting on all the things that make the camino great. And stats the past couple decades would reinforce that thinking.

But who's to say that the numbers will continue to increase? They could also go the other direction, and the camino could fade from the limelight and numbers could plummet. Don't forget that while the camino is 1,000+ years old, these huge crowds are a recent phenomenon.

While there are many devoted "pilgrims" who walk caminos for all the great reasons pilgrims walk caminos, there is almost certainly a percentage of people that are doing it because it's a popular thing to do right now, and that's it. They've seen the YouTube videos, the Instagram posts and the Tic Tocs, and they want to do the same thing. But they would be just as happy doing another new adventure in another part of the world. Those types are fickle and it's conceivable that the pendulum could swing the other way and the number of people walking decreases year over year.

Or maybe that's just wishful thinking...

 

[Bradypus]

But who's to say that the numbers will continue to increase? They could also go the other direction, and the camino could fade from the limelight and numbers could plummet. Don't forget that these huge crowds are a recent phenomenon.

Numbers could go in the other direction. But do you have any evidence suggesting that they will? Apart from the Holy Year spikes and a couple of years during Covid the movement has all been one way. Back in 2001 on my second Camino I was stunned at the more than 10-fold increase in numbers since my first walk and I was pretty sure then that numbers must be reaching saturation. About 60,000 that year. So my prognostication record is not great! I do not see anything right now that suggests the bubble is set to burst quite yet.

 

[JustJack]

Numbers could go in the other direction. But do you have any evidence suggesting that they will?

No of course I don't. No one does. And no one has any better idea than I do which way the numbers will go in the years ahead. But they could go either way. As they say in the investment industry, past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Almost no one was walking caminos for decades / hundreds of years before this recent phenomenon so it could be a trend that reverses itself in the coming years. The reports of overcrowding etc could (hopefully) help discourage some of the less motivated people from doing it. I also seem to recall a recent video from Ivar mentioning that current number of arrivals in SDC are down from the same period last year, so it'll be interesting to see how 2025 shapes up.

 

[Tincatinker]

I’m minded of a bit of graffiti on the Northern Line viaduct across the North Circular Road in London: “You are not stuck in traffic. YOU ARE TRAFFIC”

I note that one cruise line has removed Barcelona from their itinerary “for the comfort of their passengers”.

 

[Telelama]

I have a google alert set for "Camino" and "Camino de Santiago". I get multiple emails a day with links to articles, opinion pieces, obituaries and other that have those words in them.

They are increasing, especially articles about this person is/will/did walk the Camino for x reasons and travel articles about the Camino or the Camino being listed as "one of Europe's best walks" are common. Everyday I see more and more of them.

My takeaway from this is that the interest remains high, and awareness of the Camino itself is increasing among the populace. Therefore, I believe it will continue to grow for a few more years at least.

 

[Vacajoe]

For US pilgrims, I think the numbers will fade as the Baby Boomers age out and the next generations lack the funds and early retirements to make the investment of time and money to take this type of trip. And then the giant travel marketing machine will find the “new” hot place where everyone should go and that’ll drop numbers for other countries. Catholics will still walk just like they’ve done for a thousand years, but the hikers and vacationers will likely taper off to a more reasonable level

 

[suseia]

Who knows? Anyway for sure some pilgrims are just attracted because the camino has become famous but the Camino often develops its..effects... on everybody indipendently of the original motivations.. .in terrms of deep introspecrion on oneself for a new way of life.. The crowd could also be (at least partially) a consequence of these meaningful experiences shared by all of us.. Thanks for the topic!